As I read through some materials cross websites and it confirms my view about current market status, the US bull market still has long way to go:
Unusually High Neutral Sentiment Often Followed by Good Returns -AAII
Birinyi Says Six-Year Bull Won’t End Until Skeptics Muzzled
My take away is Skeptics=Neutral Sentiment
Confirmation bias? It could be...
I am intrigued by the cycle of stock market and factors that may shape these cycles.
Saturday, May 23, 2015
Sunday, May 10, 2015
Riding Chinese Bull Market with Golden Ratio (Continued)
As we mentioned last time, we threw out 12K as our optimistic estimation of SSEC peak. The estimation is based on SSEC historical path and golden ratios it has followed. For instance, 261.8% expansion is the most important Golden Ratio for SSEC bull market. This ratio has showed up in 1992, 1996, and 2005 bull market (Figure. 1 - 3).
Figure.1 Bull market in 1992-1993 with Golden Expansion Ratio 261.8%
Figure.2 Bull market in 1996-1997 with Golden Expansion Ratio 261.8%
Figure.3 Bull market in 2005-2007 with Golden Expansion Ratio 261.8%
Of course the path of current bull market is unfolding and based on latest reading, the final peak of the market is standing at about 6,000.
Figure.4 Current bull market with Golden Expansion Ratio 261.8% to 6000
This is not to say 12K is not reachable: if the market can breakthrough 6K with high volume, it will set the path for 12K.
Since March 2015 market breakthrough, this wave point out a short term peak at 5K in next 1-2 months. Depending how the volume looks like, i.e, historical high volume is needed to breakthrough, we expect a major correct there.
Also, global market is headed to a major correction in next 1-2 months (we will talk about this in details in near future before the correction), so Chinese market may not immune from the "global pandemic".
Figure.1 Bull market in 1992-1993 with Golden Expansion Ratio 261.8%
Figure.2 Bull market in 1996-1997 with Golden Expansion Ratio 261.8%
Figure.3 Bull market in 2005-2007 with Golden Expansion Ratio 261.8%
Of course the path of current bull market is unfolding and based on latest reading, the final peak of the market is standing at about 6,000.
This is not to say 12K is not reachable: if the market can breakthrough 6K with high volume, it will set the path for 12K.
Since March 2015 market breakthrough, this wave point out a short term peak at 5K in next 1-2 months. Depending how the volume looks like, i.e, historical high volume is needed to breakthrough, we expect a major correct there.
Also, global market is headed to a major correction in next 1-2 months (we will talk about this in details in near future before the correction), so Chinese market may not immune from the "global pandemic".
Sunday, April 26, 2015
Riding Chinese Bull Market with Golden Ratio
Chinese stock market right now is so hot that it's everybody's guess where's the possible height it will reach. I would like to join this "exuberance" and try to rationally guess where Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite(SSEC) will end up.
My guesstimation to the peak of SSEC is about 12,000 in 2017.
I will get more details later...
My guesstimation to the peak of SSEC is about 12,000 in 2017.
I will get more details later...
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